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利用代理变量调整的靶向干预因果发现AI 解读

Randomized perturbations can reveal downstream responses without identifying which causal relationships are direct. Conditioning on intermediate responses may induce associations through unmeasured common causes, even when the source is randomized. We introduce Proxy-Adjusted Balanced Masking (PABM), a nonparametric framework for recovering directed acyclic graphs from targeted interventions, response data, and recorded proxies. PABM uses valid target-specific interventions…

冰淇淋不会导致溺水：评测大语言模型应对因果推断统计陷阱的能力AI 解读

Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical causal inference. Current benchmarks usually involve simplified tasks. For example, these tasks might only ask LLMs to identify semantic causal relationships or draw conclusions directly from raw data. As a result, models may overlook…

用于干预抽样与边推断的因果编码扩散模型AI 解读

Standard diffusion models are flexible estimators of complex distributions, but they do not encode causal structures and therefore do not by themselves support causal analysis. We propose a causality-encoded diffusion framework that incorporates a known directed acyclic graph by training conditional diffusion models consistent with the graph factorisation. The resulting sampler approximately recovers the observational distribution and enables interventional sampling by…

存在混杂时的非线性因果发现AI 解读

This article introduces a causal discovery method to learn nonlinear relationships in a directed acyclic graph with correlated Gaussian errors due to confounding. First, we derive model identifiability under the sublinear growth assumption. Then, we propose a novel method, named the Deconfounded Functional Structure Estimation (DeFuSE), consisting of a deconfounding adjustment to remove the confounding effects and a sequential procedure to estimate the causal order of…

利用扩散模型生成数据增强因果效应估计AI 解读

Estimating causal effects from observational data is inherently challenging due to the lack of observable counterfactual outcomes and even the presence of unmeasured confounding. Traditional methods often rely on restrictive, untestable assumptions or necessitate valid instrumental variables, significantly limiting their applicability and robustness. In this paper, we introduce Augmented Causal Effect Estimation (ACEE), an innovative approach that utilizes synthetic data…

利用GWAS汇总数据推断非线性因果效应AI 解读

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have offered an exciting opportunity to discover putative causal genes or risk factors associated with diseases by using SNPs as instrumental variables (IVs). However, conventional approaches assume linear causal relations partly for simplicity and partly for the availability of GWAS summary data. In this work, we propose a novel model {for transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS)} to incorporate nonlinear relationships…

通过剥离算法实现广义线性模型的因果发现AI 解读

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges due to unmeasured confounders that hinder the identification of causal relationships. The proposed approach addresses this issue by developing two peeling algorithms (bottom-up and top-down) to ascertain causal relationships and valid…

存在隐藏混杂时的因果网络发现与推断AI 解读

This article proposes a novel causal discovery and inference method called GrIVET for a Gaussian directed acyclic graph with unmeasured confounders. GrIVET consists of an order-based causal discovery method and a likelihood-based inferential procedure. For causal discovery, we generalize the existing peeling algorithm to estimate the ancestral relations and candidate instruments in the presence of hidden confounders. Based on this, we propose a new procedure for instrumental…

具有双层单调性的多阶段推荐系统AI 解读

A recommender system learns to predict the user-specific preference or intention over many items simultaneously for all users, making personalized recommendations based on a relatively small number of observations. One central issue is how to leverage three-way interactions, referred to as user-item-stage dependencies on a monotonic chain of events, to enhance the prediction accuracy. A monotonic chain of events occurs, for instance, in an article sharing dataset, where a…