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生育、子女性别与父母迁移决策：来自中国的证据AI 解读

We study how the number and gender of children affect rural-tourban parental migration in China. Exploiting variation from the “1.5- child policy,” which allowed a second birth only if the firstborn was a girl, we separately identify the causal effects of fertility and child gender based on a novel semi-parametric method. Using the 2010 population census, we find that an additional child increases the likelihood of joint parental migration by 12.1 percent, while the presence…

没有工具变量时的边际处理效应AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a method for defining, identifying, and estimating the marginal treatment effect (MTE) without imposing the instrumental variable (IV) assumptions of independence, exclusion, and separability (or monotonicity). Under a new definition of the MTE based on reduced‐form treatment error that is statistically independent of the covariates, we find that the relationship between the MTE and standard treatment parameters holds in the absence of IVs. We provide a…

We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality trade-off. An exogenous increase in fertility can be either desired or undesired. We derive a positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We propose an econometric framework to identify treatment effects of desired and undesired fertility…

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic…