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“胡萝卜与大棒”政策的治疗效应与制度效应AI 解读

Public employment service (PES) agencies and caseworkers (CWs) often have substantial leeway in the design and implementation of active labor market policies for the unemployed, and they use policies to a varying extent. We estimate regime effects which capture how CW and PES affect outcomes through different policy intensities. These operate potentially on all forward-looking job seekers regardless of actual treatment exposure. We consider regime effects for two sets of…

动态处理效应评估的非参数工具变量方法AI 解读

We develop an instrumental variable approach for identification of dynamic treatment effects on survival outcomes in the presence of dynamic selection, noncompliance, and right-censoring. The approach is nonparametric and does not require independence of observed and unobserved characteristics or separability assumptions. We propose estimation procedures and derive asymptotic properties. We apply our approach to evaluate a policy reform in which the pathway of unemployment…

处理效应的持续期依赖与未观测异质性：瑞典就业培训与就业转移率AI 解读

SUMMARY The effect of a treatment on the hazard rate of a duration outcome may depend on the elapsed time since treatment. In addition, treatment effects may be heterogeneous across agents. The former gives rise to duration dependence of the treatment effect, whereas unobserved heterogeneity gives rise to spurious duration dependence of the observable hazard rate. We develop a model allowing for duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the treatment effect. The…

雇员与企业特定效应下的工作持续期：基于雇主—雇员纵向数据的 MCMC 估计AI 解读

We study job durations using a multivariate hazard model allowing for worker-specific and firm-specific unobserved determinants. The latter are captured by unobserved heterogeneity terms or random effects, one at the firm level and another at the worker level. This enables us to decompose the variation in job durations into the relative contribution of the worker and the firm. We also allow the unobserved terms to be correlated in a model that is primarily relevant for…

持续期模型中处理效应的非参数识别AI 解读

This paper analyzes the specification and identification of causal multivariate duration models. We focus on the case in which one duration concerns the point in time a treatment is initiated and we are interested in the effect of this treatment on some outcome duration. We define “no anticipation of treatment” and relate it to a common assumption in biostatistics. We show that (i) no anticipation and (ii) randomized treatment assignment can be imposed without restricting…

混合比例风险竞争风险模型的可识别性AI 解读

Summary We prove identification of dependent competing risks models in which each risk has a mixed proportional hazard specification with regressors, and the risks are dependent by way of the unobserved heterogeneity, or frailty, components. We show that the conditions for identification given by Heckman and Honoré can be relaxed. We extend the results to the case in which multiple spells are observed for each subject.

双变量风险率模型中持续期的关联度量AI 解读

In multivariate hazard rate models, the duration variables are dependent if their unobserved determinants are dependent on each other. This paper derives properties of association measures for these duration variables. Sharp bounds for correlations are derived in the general case as well as in cases in which the bivariate distribution of unobserved heterogeneity belongs to specific families. Similar results are derived for Kendall's tau, which does not depend on the shape of…