How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies
政治学中的工具变量估计有多可信?基于六十余项复现的实践建议
Instrumental variable (IV) strategies are widely used in political science to establish causal relationships. However, the identifying assumptions required by an IV design are demanding, and it remains challenging for researchers to assess their validity. In this paper, we replicate 67 papers published in three top journals in political science during 2010-2022 and identify several troubling patterns. First, researchers often overestimate the strength of their IVs due to…