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用稳健波动率代理比较预测：经验偏差视角AI 解读

Volatility forecasting is crucial to risk management and portfolio construction. One particular challenge of assessing volatility forecasts is how to construct a robust proxy for the unknown true volatility. In this work, we show that the empirical loss comparison between two volatility predictors hinges on the deviation of the volatility proxy from the true volatility. We then establish non-asymptotic deviation bounds for three robust volatility proxies, two of which are…

最优子集选择对设计相关性的稳健性AI 解读

Best subset selection (BSS) is widely known as the holy grail for high-dimensional variable selection. Nevertheless, the notorious NP-hardness of BSS substantially restricts its practical application and also discourages its theoretical development to some extent, particularly in the current era of big data. In this paper, we investigate the variable selection properties of BSS when its target sparsity is greater than or equal to the true sparsity. Our main message is that…

稳健高维因子模型及其统计机器学习应用AI 解读

Factor models are a class of powerful statistical models that have been widely used to deal with dependent measurements that arise frequently from various applications from genomics and neuroscience to economics and finance. As data are collected at an ever-growing scale, statistical machine learning faces some new challenges: high dimensionality, strong dependence among observed variables, heavy-tailed variables and heterogeneity. High-dimensional robust factor analysis…

主特征子空间的分布式估计AI 解读

Principal component analysis (PCA) is fundamental to statistical machine learning. It extracts latent principal factors that contribute to the most variation of the data. When data are stored across multiple machines, however, communication cost can prohibit the computation of PCA in a central location and distributed algorithms for PCA are thus needed. This paper proposes and studies a distributed PCA algorithm: each node machine computes the top $K$ eigenvectors and…

大数据中的主成分分析AI 解读

Big data is transforming our world, revolutionizing operations and analytics everywhere, from financial engineering to biomedical sciences. The complexity of big data often makes dimension reduction techniques necessary before conducting statistical inference. Principal component analysis, commonly referred to as PCA, has become an essential tool for multivariate data analysis and unsupervised dimension reduction, the goal of which is to find a lower dimensional subspace…

核范数正则化的广义高维迹回归AI 解读

We study the generalized trace regression with a near low-rank regression coefficient matrix, which extends notion of sparsity for regression coefficient vectors. Specifically, given a matrix covariate $X$, the probability density function $f(Y\vert X)=c(Y)\exp{(φ^{-1}\left[-Yη^* + b(η^*)\right])}$, where $η^*=tr({Θ^*}^TX)$. This model accommodates various types of responses and embraces many important problem setups such as reduced-rank regression, matrix regression that…

重尾数据的收缩原则：高维稳健低秩矩阵恢复AI 解读

This paper introduces a simple principle for robust high-dimensional statistical inference via an appropriate shrinkage on the data. This widens the scope of high-dimensional techniques, reducing the moment conditions from sub-exponential or sub-Gaussian distributions to merely bounded second or fourth moment. As an illustration of this principle, we focus on robust estimation of the low-rank matrix $Θ^*$ from the trace regression model $Y=Tr (Θ^{*T}X) +ε$. It encompasses…

异质性调整及其在图模型推断中的应用AI 解读

Heterogeneity is an unwanted variation when analyzing aggregated datasets from multiple sources. Though different methods have been proposed for heterogeneity adjustment, no systematic theory exists to justify these methods. In this work, we propose a generic framework named ALPHA (short for Adaptive Low-rank Principal Heterogeneity Adjustment) to model, estimate, and adjust heterogeneity from the original data. Once the heterogeneity is adjusted, we are able to remove the…

具有统计保证的分布式估计与推断AI 解读

This paper studies hypothesis testing and parameter estimation in the context of the divide and conquer algorithm. In a unified likelihood based framework, we propose new test statistics and point estimators obtained by aggregating various statistics from $k$ subsamples of size $n/k$, where $n$ is the sample size. In both low dimensional and high dimensional settings, we address the important question of how to choose $k$ as $n$ grows large, providing a theoretical upper…