Systematic simulation of age-period-cohort analysis: Demonstrating bias of Bayesian regularization
年龄—时期—队列分析的系统模拟:贝叶斯正则化偏差
Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is one of the fundamental time-series analyses used in the social sciences. This paper evaluates APC analysis via systematic simulation in term of how well the artificial parameters are recovered. We consider three models of Bayesian regularization using normal prior distributions: the random effects model with reference to multilevel analysis, the ridge regression model equivalent to the intrinsic estimator, and the random walk model…