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靶向深度生存对比：神经网络下处理特定生存收益的有效推断AI 解读

Neural survival models are increasingly asked to support counterfactual claims---how much a treatment would change survival in a population---rather than only prognostic risk scores. Answering such questions from observational data requires valid inference for treatment-specific survival contrasts under confounding and covariate-dependent censoring, targets for which standard deep survival estimators are biased and provide no honest uncertainty. We propose Targeted Deep…

半参数推断的 V 折刀切法：方差、置信区间与同时置信带AI 解读

For decades, the bootstrap has been a default tool for statistical inference because of its broad applicability and minimal analytic requirements. Although its validity is well understood for smooth parametric estimators, its theoretical properties for many modern semiparametric and machine-learning estimators remain largely unstudied. Nevertheless, bootstrap procedures are often used routinely in such settings, even when their validity is unknown and their computational…

高维有界离散图模型的正则化广义得分匹配估计AI 解读

Graphical models for multivariate count data are widely used to characterize conditional dependence structures. For count variables with unbounded support, however, ensuring a finite normalizing constant typically imposes restrictive constraints on interaction parameters. We propose bounded discrete graphical models for multivariate discrete responses with finite support, which remove such constraints by construction while retaining interpretable dependence on the observed…

超高维DNA甲基化数据中发育表观遗传衰老的监督低秩结构发现AI 解读

Ultra-high-dimensional array-based CpG methylation studies require statistical frameworks that simultaneously provide supervised structure discovery, interpretability, scalable latent-dimension identification, and computational feasibility. We propose SOLAR (Supervised Orthogonal Low-rank Adaptive Regression), a supervised low-rank latent-factor framework for identifying CpG-level methylation structure associated with residualized DNAm age. SOLAR combines orthogonal low-rank…

发散维协变量下Cox回归的实质模型相容多重插补AI 解读

Modern biomedical survival studies with high-dimensional genomic and clinical predictors are challenged by missing covariates. Existing methods conduct inference through penalization and debiasing when the number of covariates diverges with sample size, but they are typically developed with fully observed covariates. Conversely, substantive-model-compatible multiple imputation methods, particularly substantive-model-compatible fully conditional specification (SMC-FCS),…

利用深度生存学习器估计生存结局的异质性处理效应AI 解读

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in survival settings is complicated by right censoring as well as the time-varying nature of the estimand. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) provides a natural target, most existing approaches focus on a single prespecified time point and do not account for the temporal trajectory, leading to instability in estimation. We propose a deep survival learner (DSL) for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with…

HAL-MLE 对数样条密度估计（第一部分：单变量）AI 解读

We study nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of probability densities under a total variation (TV) type penalty, sectional variation norm (also named as Hardy-Krause variation). TV regularization has a long history in regression and density estimation, including results on $L^2$ and KL divergence convergence rates. Here, we revisit this task using the Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) framework. We formulate a HAL-based maximum likelihood estimator (HAL-MLE) using the…

基于组合多重子抽样的U学习：面向LASSO与神经网络的预测推断AI 解读

Epigenetic aging clocks play a pivotal role in estimating an individual's biological age through the examination of DNA methylation patterns at numerous CpG (Cytosine-phosphate-Guanine) sites within their genome. However, making valid inferences on predicted epigenetic ages, or more broadly, on predictions derived from high-dimensional inputs, presents challenges. We introduce a novel U-learning approach via combinatory multi-subsampling for making ensemble predictions and…

整合多项多变量结局观察研究的因果元分析AI 解读

Integrating multiple observational studies to make unconfounded causal or descriptive comparisons of group potential outcomes in a large natural population is challenging. Moreover, retrospective cohorts, being convenience samples, are usually unrepresentative of the natural population of interest and have groups with unbalanced covariates. We propose a general covariate-balancing framework based on pseudo-populations that extends established weighting methods to the…

传送器理论：跨世界反事实因果建模的一般图示方法AI 解读

Leveraging the development of structural causal model (SCM), researchers can establish graphical models for exploring the causal mechanisms behind machine learning techniques. As the complexity of machine learning applications rises, single-world interventionism causal analysis encounters theoretical adaptation limitations. Accordingly, cross-world counterfactual approach extends our understanding of causality beyond observed data, enabling hypothetical reasoning about…

研究治疗启动时间窗时克隆—删失—加权法的复杂估计对象AI 解读

Clone-censor-weighting (CCW) is an analytic method for studying treatment regimens that are indistinguishable from one another at baseline without relying on landmark dates or creating immortal person time. One particularly interesting CCW application is estimating outcomes when starting treatment within specific time windows in observational data (e.g., starting a treatment within 30 days of hospitalization). In such cases, CCW estimates something fairly complex. We show…

动态条件分位数处理效应的评估及网约车应用AI 解读

Many modern tech companies, such as Google, Uber, and Didi, utilize online experiments (also known as A/B testing) to evaluate new policies against existing ones. While most studies concentrate on average treatment effects, situations with skewed and heavy-tailed outcome distributions may benefit from alternative criteria, such as quantiles. However, assessing dynamic quantile treatment effects (QTE) remains a challenge, particularly when dealing with data from ride-sourcing…