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矩阵值时间序列的因子模型：非平稳性与协整AI 解读

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully explore the intrinsic matrix structure in the data, allowing interaction between the row and column stochastic trends, and subsequently improving the estimation convergence. It also reduces the computation complexity in estimation. The main…

面板数据估计与推断：同质性与异质性AI 解读

In this paper, we define an underlying data generating process that allows for different magnitudes of cross-sectional dependence, along with time series autocorrelation. This is achieved via high-dimensional moving average processes of infinite order (HDMA($\infty$)). Our setup and investigation integrates and enhances homogenous and heterogeneous panel data estimation and testing in a unified way. To study HDMA($\infty$), we extend the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition to a…

高维面板数据模型的稳健估计与推断AI 解读

This paper provides the relevant literature with a complete toolkit for conducting robust estimation and inference about the parameters of interest involved in a high-dimensional panel data framework. Specifically, (1) we allow for non-Gaussian, serially and cross-sectionally correlated and heteroskedastic error processes, (2) we develop an estimation method for high-dimensional long-run covariance matrix using a thresholded estimator, (3) we also allow for the number of…

因子模型结构变化的稳健残差检验AI 解读

In this paper, we propose an easy-to-implement residual-based specification testing procedure for detecting structural changes in factor models, which is powerful against both smooth and abrupt structural changes with unknown break dates. The proposed test is robust against the over-specified number of factors, and serially and crosssectionally correlated error processes. A new central limit theorem is given for the quadratic forms of panel data with dependence over both…

一类广义层级模型的估计与推断AI 解读

In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for the unknown parameters and function involved in a class of generalized hierarchical models. Such models are of great interest in the literature of neural networks (such as Bauer and Kohler, 2019). We propose a rectified linear unit (ReLU) based deep neural network (DNN) approach, and contribute to the design of DNN by i) providing more transparency for practical implementation, ii) defining different types of sparsity,…

面板数据模型的高阶展开与推断AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a simple inferential method for a wide class of panel data models with a focus on such cases that have both serial correlation and cross-sectional dependence. In order to establish an asymptotic theory to support the inferential method, we develop some new and useful higher-order expansions, such as Berry-Esseen bound and Edgeworth Expansion, under a set of simple and general conditions. We further demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical…

时变向量误差修正模型：估计与推断AI 解读

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this framework can be used to estimate shifts in the predictability of non-stationary variables, test whether economic theories hold periodically, etc. We first develop a time-varying Granger Representation Theorem, which facilitates the…

时变多元因果过程AI 解读

In this paper, we consider a wide class of time-varying multivariate causal processes which nests many classic and new examples as special cases. We first prove the existence of a weakly dependent stationary approximation for our model which is the foundation to initiate the theoretical development. Afterwards, we consider the QMLE estimation approach, and provide both point-wise and simultaneous inferences on the coefficient functions. In addition, we demonstrate the…

时变 VAR 模型：估计、检验与脉冲响应分析AI 解读

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new class of time-varying VAR models in which the coefficients and covariance matrix of the error innovations are allowed to change smoothly over time. Accordingly, we establish a set of theories, including the impulse responses analyses subject…