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基于 CP 分解的高维时间序列张量随机回归AI 解读

As tensor-valued data become increasingly common in time series analysis, there is a growing need for flexible and interpretable models that can handle high-dimensional predictors and responses across multiple modes. We propose a unified framework for high-dimensional tensor stochastic regression based on CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition, which encompasses vector, matrix, and tensor responses and predictors as special cases. Tensor autoregression naturally arises as a…

SARMA：基于张量分解的可扩展低秩高维自回归移动平均模型AI 解读

Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less considered. This paper introduces a Tucker-low-rank framework to efficiently capture VARMA-type dynamics for high-dimensional time series, named the Scalable ARMA (SARMA) model. It generalizes the Tucker-low-rank finite-order VAR model to the…

用于高维时间序列的可解释且高效的无限阶向量自回归模型AI 解读

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long been hindered by its non-identifiability, computational intractability, and difficulty of interpretation, especially for high-dimensional time series. This paper proposes a novel sparse infinite-order VAR model for high-dimensional time…

分位数自回归条件异方差模型AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional quantiles of the time series across different quantile levels, while including the commonly used GARCH model as a special case. The strict stationarity of the model is discussed. For robustness against heavy-tailed distributions, a…

高维低秩张量自回归时间序列建模AI 解读

Modern technological advances have enabled an unprecedented amount of structured data with complex temporal dependence, urging the need for new methods to efficiently model and forecast high-dimensional tensor-valued time series. This paper provides a new modeling framework to accomplish this task via autoregression (AR). By considering a low-rank Tucker decomposition for the transition tensor, the proposed tensor AR can flexibly capture the underlying low-dimensional tensor…