Replacing ARDL? Introducing the NSB-ARDL Model for Structural and Asymmetric Forecasting
替代 ARDL?用于结构变化与非对称预测的 NSB-ARDL 模型
This paper introduces the NSB-ARDL (Nonlinear Structural Break Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, a novel econometric framework designed to capture asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in macroeconomic time series. Traditional ARDL models, while widely used for estimating short- and long-run relationships, rely on assumptions of linearity and symmetry that may overlook critical structural features in real-world data. The NSB-ARDL model overcomes these limitations by…