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厚尾与随机波动率下规范化向量自回归预测软件的设计AI 解读

We present a suite of R packages for macroeconomic forecasting that leverages advanced Bayesian, structural, multivariate, dynamic, hierarchical, non-linear, and non-Gaussian models. The suite enables both structural and predictive analyses, and is adapted to time series data across various types, dimensions, and sampling frequencies. Each additional feature increases computational complexity. To address this challenge, our software design incorporates a carefully curated…

使用 R 包 bsvars 快速高效分析贝叶斯结构向量自回归AI 解读

The R package bsvars provides a wide range of tools for empirical macroeconomic and financial analyses using Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressions. It uses frontier econometric techniques and C++ code to ensure fast and efficient estimation of these multivariate dynamic structural models, possibly with many variables, complex identification strategies, and non-linear characteristics. The models can be identified using adjustable exclusion restrictions and…

使用 R 包 bpvars 的贝叶斯面板向量自回归预测AI 解读

The R package bpvars was designed to forecast employment, unemployment, and labour market participation rates of 189 countries. However, it is generally applicable to dynamic panel data due to the flexibility of its modelling framework and robust coding. It includes a family of Bayesian hierarchical panel Vector Autoregressions (VARs) that are characterised by: (i) country-specific VAR models (ii) with their parameters' priors centred around their global counterparts, and…

稀疏异质马尔可夫转换异方差结构 VAR 的识别验证AI 解读

We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this model, the conditional variance of each structural shock changes in time according to its own Markov process. Additionally, it features a sparse representation of Markov processes, in which the number of regimes is set to exceed that of the data-generating process, with some regimes…

非中心化随机波动率下结构向量自回归的部分识别AI 解读

We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility under Bayesian estimation. Three contributions emerge from our exercise. First, we show that a non-centred parameterization of stochastic volatility yields a marginal prior for the conditional variances of structural shocks that is centred on homoskedasticity, with strong shrinkage and heavy tails -- unlike the common centred parameterization. This feature makes it well suited for…

结构向量自回归的时变识别AI 解读

We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks within the Markov process regimes. We implement the selection through a multinomial prior distribution over these patterns, which is a spike'n'slab prior for individual parameters. By combining a Markov-switching structural matrix with…

使用 R 包 bsvarSIGNs 分析带符号、零值与叙事限制的贝叶斯结构 VARAI 解读

The R package bsvarSIGNs implements state-of-the-art algorithms for the Bayesian analysis of Structural Vector Autoregressions identified by sign, zero, and narrative restrictions. It offers fast and efficient estimation thanks to the deployment of frontier econometric and numerical techniques and algorithms written in C++. The core model is based on a flexible Vector Autoregression with estimated hyper-parameters of the Minnesota prior and the dummy observation priors. The…

货币政策冲击的时变识别AI 解读

We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search, allows to verify identification through heteroskedasticity within each regime. Based on four alternative monetary policy rules, we show that a monthly six-variable system supports time variation in US monetary policy shock identification. In…