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超越预趋势：基于反事实填补不一致性的双重差分敏感性分析AI 解读

In the canonical Difference-in-Differences design, the control group's post-treatment change serves as an imputation of the treated group's counterfactual change in the same period, an imputation justified by parallel trends. However, differences in group composition can produce between-group differences in how outcomes would evolve over time, rendering this imputation vulnerable to confounding. An alternative imputation -- such as one based on the treated group's…

种族的哪一种效应？不固定其他特征的因果推断AI 解读

Empirical studies of racial discrimination vary race while holding nonracial traits fixed, a design the literature defends as what credible inference requires. This defense bundles two claims: which effect of race a study should target, and whether its design can recover that effect. I separate them. The same randomization that secures credible estimation and inference recovers a family of race estimands, from the all-else-equal effect to a within-race effect that lets…