Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
实时监测经济:实际活动与价格的趋势和缺口
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based multivariate identification restrictions to inform trend-cycle decomposition, while the alternative model adds the CBO's output gap measure as an observed variable. The latter model results in a smoother output potential and lower cyclical…