Tracking the Hidden Forces Behind Laos' 2022 Exchange Rate Crisis and Balance of Payments Instability
追踪老挝 2022 年汇率危机与国际收支不稳定背后的潜在因素
This working paper uses a Dynamic Factor Model ('the model') to identify underlying factors contributing to the debt-induced economic crisis in the People's Democratic Republic of Laos ('Laos'). The analysis aims to use the latent macroeconomic insights to propose ways forward for forecasting. We focus on Laos's historic structural weaknesses to identify when a balance of payments crisis with either a persistent current account imbalance or rapid capital outflows would…