Determination of the effective cointegration rank in high-dimensional time-series predictive regressions
高维时间序列预测回归中有效协整秩的确定
This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effective cointegration rank in high-dimensional unit-root (HDUR) time series from a prediction perspective using reduced-rank regression. For a HDUR process $\mathbf{x}_t\in \mathbb{R}^N$ and a stationary series $\mathbf{y}_t\in \mathbb{R}^p$ of interest, our goal is to predict future values of $\mathbf{y}_t$ using $\mathbf{x}_t$ and lagged values of $\mathbf{y}_t$. The proposed framework consists of a two-step…