Individualized treatment effect was predicted best by modeling baseline risk in interaction with treatment assignment
通过基线风险与治疗分配交互预测个体化治疗效应
Objective: To compare different risk-based methods for optimal prediction of treatment effects. Methods: We simulated RCT data using diverse assumptions for the average treatment effect, a baseline prognostic index of risk (PI), the shape of its interaction with treatment (none, linear, quadratic or non-monotonic), and the magnitude of treatment-related harms (none or constant independent of the PI). We predicted absolute benefit using: models with a constant relative…