When Prices Double in a Week: Forecasting of Agricultural Volatility in Import-Isolated Markets
一周价格翻倍:进口隔离市场中的农业价格波动预测
Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned…