Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects: Airstrikes and insurgent violence in the Iraq War
允许任意溢出与延续效应的时空因果推断：伊拉克战争中的空袭与叛乱暴力
Social scientists now routinely draw on high-frequency, high-granularity ''microlevel'' data to estimate the causal effects of subnational interventions. To date, most researchers aggregate these data into panels, often tied to large-scale administrative units. This approach has two limitations. First, data (over)aggregation obscures valuable spatial and temporal information, heightening the risk of mistaken inferences. Second, existing panel approaches either ignore spatial…