Forecasting Causal Effects of Future Interventions: Confounding and Transportability Issues
未来干预因果效应的预测:混杂与可迁移性问题
Recent developments in causal inference allow us to transport a causal effect of a time-fixed treatment from a randomized trial to a target population across space but within the same time frame. In contrast to transportability across space, transporting causal effects across time or forecasting causal effects of future interventions is more challenging due to time-varying confounders and time-varying effect modifiers. In this article, we seek to formally clarify the causal…