Long-Term Causal Inference with Imperfect Surrogates using Many Weak Experiments, Proxies, and Cross-Fold Moments
不完美替代指标下的长期因果推断:众多弱实验、代理与跨折矩
Inferring causal effects on long-term outcomes using short-term surrogates is crucial to rapid innovation. However, even when treatments are randomized and surrogates fully mediate their effect on outcomes, it's possible that we get the direction of causal effects wrong due to confounding between surrogates and outcomes -- a situation famously known as the surrogate paradox. The availability of many historical experiments offer the opportunity to instrument for the surrogate…