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岭正则化的刀切 Anderson–Rubin 检验AI 解读

We consider hypothesis testing in instrumental variable regression models with few included exogenous covariates but many instruments -- possibly more than the number of observations. We show that a ridge-regularised version of the jackknifed Anderson Rubin (1949, henceforth AR) test controls asymptotic size in the presence of heteroskedasticity, and when the instruments may be arbitrarily weak. Asymptotic size control is established under weaker assumptions than those…

使用大量工具变量的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线推断AI 解读

Limited-information inference on New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs) and other single-equation macroeconomic relations is characterised by weak and high-dimensional instrumental variables (IVs). Beyond the efficiency concerns previously raised in the literature, I show by simulation that ad-hoc selection procedures can lead to substantial biases in post-selection inference. I propose a Sup Score test that remains valid under dependent data, arbitrarily weak identification,…