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共享横截面预测目标时的目标对齐、稀释与预测者选择AI 解读

Forecasters often score the same units per date against one standardized realized outcome. We show that every standardized forecast splits exactly into a component aligned with this common target and a component uncorrelated with it. Three consequences follow: forecast-error correlation largely mirrors forecast correlation and is therefore a poor measure of diversity; an equally weighted combination beats a no-information forecast only when average alignment is large…

通过提示与检索增强生成流程构造投资组合风险压力情景AI 解读

We develop a transparent and fully auditable LLM-based pipeline for macro-financial stress testing, combining structured prompting with optional retrieval of country fundamentals and news. The system generates machine-readable macroeconomic scenarios for the G7, which cover GDP growth, inflation, and policy rates, and are translated into portfolio losses through a factor-based mapping that enables Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall assessment relative to classical…