Bayesian Functional Emulation of CO2 Emissions on Future Climate Change Scenarios
未来气候变化情景下二氧化碳排放的贝叶斯函数型仿真代理
We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow…