Revisiting Day-ahead Electricity Price: Simple Model Save Millions
重新审视日前电价预测:简单模型与潜在成本节约
Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation between price and demand-supply, which, we found, can contribute a lot to a reliable electricity price forecaster. Leveraging this prior, we propose a simple piecewise linear model that significantly enhances forecast accuracy by directly…