From aggressive to conservative early stopping in Bayesian group sequential designs
贝叶斯组序贯设计中从激进到保守的提前停止
Group sequential designs (GSDs) are widely used in confirmatory trials to allow interim monitoring while preserving control of the type I error rate. In the frequentist framework, O'Brien-Fleming-type stopping boundaries dominate practice because they impose highly conservative early stopping while allowing more liberal decisions as information accumulates. Bayesian GSDs, in contrast, are most often implemented using fixed posterior probability thresholds applied uniformly…