Can Machine Learning Catch Economic Recessions Using Economic and Market Sentiments?
机器学习能否利用经济与市场情绪预测经济衰退?
Quantitative models are an important decision-making factor for policy makers and investors. Predicting an economic recession with high accuracy and reliability would be very beneficial for the society. This paper assesses machine learning technics to predict economic recessions in United States using market sentiment and economic indicators (seventy-five explanatory variables) from Jan 1986 - June 2022 on a monthly basis frequency. In order to solve the issue of missing…