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Power enhancement via cross-fit variance estimation: Applications to specification, overidentification, and many-restriction testing

交叉拟合方差估计的功效增强:模型设定、过度识别与多重约束检验

Quadratic-form test statistics are widely used in econometrics, and their performance depends on accurate variance estimation. Conventional plug-in estimators are consistent under the null hypothesis, but under alternatives the drift in the residuals inflates them and the test loses power. We develop a general framework for variance estimation in such statistics, replacing one of the two squared-residual factors by an auxiliary linear combination of the residuals…

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Closed-form estimation and uniform inference in additively separable triangular models with a nonseparable first stage

非可分第一阶段下加性可分三角模型的闭式估计与一致推断

This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of additively separable triangular models with continuous endogenous and instrumental variables, allowing for a nonseparable first-stage equation. Under the independence of instrumental variables and unobservables, we show that the outcome function possesses a closed-form expression as a functional of conditional cumulative distribution functions. The resulting plug-in estimators require no regularization and…

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Optimal treatment assignment rules under capacity constraints

容量约束下的最优处理分配规则

We study treatment assignment problems under capacity constraints, where a planner aims to maximize social welfare by assigning treatments based on observable covariates. Such constraints, common when treatments are costly or limited in supply, introduce nontrivial challenges for deriving optimal statistical assignment rules because the planner needs to coordinate treatment assignment probabilities across the entire covariate distribution. To address these challenges, we…

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