Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication
个体主观凶杀受害概率的更新:风险沟通的“自然实验”
We investigate the dynamics of the update of subjective homicide victimization risk after an informational shock by developing two econometric models able to accommodate both optimal decisions of changing prior expectations which enable us to rationalize skeptical Bayesian agents with their disregard to new information. We apply our models to a unique household data (N = 4,030) that consists of socioeconomic and victimization expectation variables in Brazil, coupled with an…