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语言模型能否在不引入统计偏差的情况下提高随机实验功效？AI 解读

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely adopted for causal inference, yet cost and sample-size constraints limit power. We introduce CALM (Causal Analysis leveraging Language Models), a statistical framework that integrates insights generated by large language models (LLMs) into the analysis of RCTs using established causal estimators to increase precision while preserving statistical validity. In particular, CALM treats LLM-generated outputs as auxiliary prognostic…

HERO：利用历史数据提高生成模型评估的可靠性与敏感度AI 解读

Reliable generative AI models critically rely on expert human annotations to evaluate output quality, yet these "gold" labels are expensive to collect and limited in quantity. Organizations thus often turn to collecting vast but noisy "silver" labels from crowdsourced workers or vendor annotators as proxies for gold labels. Because gold remains the evaluation target, naively aggregating noisy silver labels may introduce bias, and estimators built on sparsely observed gold…

基于汇总数据消除赢家诅咒的稳健孟德尔随机化AI 解读

In the past decade, the increased availability of genome-wide association studies summary data has popularized Mendelian Randomization (MR) for conducting causal inference. MR analyses, incorporating genetic variants as instrumental variables, are known for their robustness against reverse causation bias and unmeasured confounders. Nevertheless, classical MR analyses utilizing summary data may still produce biased causal effect estimates due to the winner's curse and…

面向处理效应异质性学习的自适应实验AI 解读

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing work in this research area focused on either analyzing observational data based on strong causal assumptions or conducting post hoc analyses of randomized controlled trial data, and there has been limited effort dedicated to the design of…

基于孟德尔随机化与多项 GWAS 高效整合的中介分析AI 解读

Mediation analysis is a powerful tool for studying causal pathways between exposure, mediator, and outcome variables of interest. While classical mediation analysis using observational data often requires strong and sometimes unrealistic assumptions, such as unconfoundedness, Mendelian Randomization (MR) avoids unmeasured confounding bias by employing genetic variations as instrumental variables. We develop a novel MR framework for mediation analysis with genome-wide…

公平的自适应实验AI 解读

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment or policy. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a prespecified probability and may lead to inefficient use of data. Adaptive experiments improve upon complete randomization by sequentially learning and updating treatment assignment probabilities. However, their application can also raise fairness and equity concerns, as assignment…

基于回归秩得分的异质性分位数处理效应去偏推断AI 解读

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital to many scientific fields because the same treatment may affect different individuals differently. Quantile regression provides a natural framework for modeling such heterogeneity. We propose a new method for inference on heterogeneous quantile treatment effects in the presence of high-dimensional covariates. Our estimator combines an $\ell_1$-penalized regression adjustment with a quantile-specific bias correction scheme…

通过高效数据聚合估计处理效应AI 解读

Data aggregation, also known as meta analysis, is widely used to combine knowledge on parameters shared in common (e.g., average treatment effect) between multiple studies. In this paper, we introduce an attractive data aggregation scheme that pools summary statistics from various existing studies. Our scheme informs the design of new validation studies and yields us unbiased estimators for the shared parameters. In our setup, each existing study applies a LASSO regression…

破解孟德尔随机化的赢家诅咒：再随机化逆方差加权估计量AI 解读

Developments in genome-wide association studies and the increasing availability of summary genetic association data have made the application of two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) with summary data increasingly popular. Conventional two-sample MR methods often employ the same sample for selecting relevant genetic variants and for constructing final causal estimates. Such a practice often leads to biased causal effect estimates due to the well known "winner's curse"…

含大量协变量时对最优政策的统计推断AI 解读

Understanding the impact of the most effective policies or treatments on a response variable of interest is desirable in many empirical works in economics, statistics and other disciplines. Due to the widespread winner's curse phenomenon, conventional statistical inference assuming that the top policies are chosen independent of the random sample may lead to overly optimistic evaluations of the best policies. In recent years, given the increased availability of large…

他汀使用与二型糖尿病：基于电子健康记录识别最易受影响亚组AI 解读

There have been increased concerns that the use of statins, one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for treating coronary artery disease, is potentially associated with the increased risk of new-onset type II diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, to date, there is no robust evidence supporting as to whether and what kind of populations are indeed vulnerable for developing T2D after taking statins. In this case study, leveraging the biobank and electronic health record data in the…

海量数据流中的动态统计推断AI 解读

Modern technological advances have expanded the scope of applications requiring analysis of large-scale datastreams that comprise multiple indefinitely long time series. There is an acute need for statistical methodologies that perform online inference and continuously revise the model to reflect the current status of the underlying process. In this manuscript, we propose a dynamic statistical inference framework--named dynamic tracking and screening (DTS)--that is not only…

观察性研究中所选子群的锐利推断AI 解读

In modern drug development, the broader availability of high-dimensional observational data provides opportunities for scientist to explore subgroup heterogeneity, especially when randomized clinical trials are unavailable due to cost and ethical constraints. However, a common practice that naively searches the subgroup with a high treatment level is often misleading due to the "subgroup selection bias." More importantly, the nature of high-dimensional observational data has…