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Comparing dependence structures between two related multivariate time series is of fundamental interest in many scientific applications, where changes may occur in both directed temporal interactions and contemporaneous connectivity. Modeling each time series by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a new framework for estimation and inference of differential Granger causality (DiffGC) and differential network (DiffNet) structures in high dimensions. The proposed…

CausalGuard：因果图不确定性下的保形推断AI 解读

Estimating treatment effects from observational data requires choosing an adjustment set, but valid adjustment depends on an unknown causal graph. Graph misspecification can cause under-coverage, while graph-agnostic conformal wrappers may regain nominal coverage only through large padding. We introduce CausalGuard, a structure-weighted conformal framework that calibrates after aggregating graph-conditional doubly robust pseudo-outcomes. Candidate DAGs are proposed from an…

含潜变量的因果推断：近期进展与未来展望AI 解读

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation of important variables (e.g., confounders, mediators, exogenous variables, etc.) severely compromises the reliability of CI methods. The issue may arise from the inherent difficulty in measuring the variables. Additionally, in…

评估新冠相关政策对疫情动态的因果影响：美国案例AI 解读

To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers and public authorities have announced various non-pharmaceutical policies. Analyzing the causal impact of these policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19 is important for future policy-making. The main challenge here is the existence of unobserved confounders (e.g., vigilance of residents). Besides, as the confounders may be time-varying during COVID-19 (e.g., vigilance of residents changes in the course of the…