Quantifying the economic response to COVID-19 mitigations and death rates via forecasting Purchasing Managers' Indices using Generalised Network Autoregressive models with exogenous variables
用含外生变量的广义网络自回归预测采购经理指数：COVID-19防控与死亡率的经济响应
Knowledge of the current state of economies, how they respond to COVID-19 mitigations and indicators, and what the future might hold for them is important. We use recently-developed generalised network autoregressive (GNAR) models, using trade-determined networks, to model and forecast the Purchasing Managers' Indices for a number of countries. We use networks that link countries where the links themselves, or their weights, are determined by the degree of export trade…