Confidence Intervals for Extinction Risk: Validating Population Viability Analysis with Limited Data
灭绝风险的置信区间:有限数据下种群存续分析的验证
Quantitative assessment of extinction risk requires confidence intervals (CIs) that remain informative with limited data. Their usefulness has long been debated because short observation spans can make uncertainty so large that population viability analysis appears impractical. I derive new CIs for extinction probability under the drift-Wiener process, a canonical model of extinction dynamics, by introducing transformed parameters $w$ and $z$ whose maximum-likelihood…