Microfoundations and the Causal Interpretation of Price-Exposure Designs
价格暴露设计的微观基础与因果解释
This paper studies regional exposure designs that use commodity prices as instruments to study local effects of aggregate shocks. Unlike standard shift share designs that leverage differential exposure to many shocks, the price exposure relies on exogenous variation from a single shock, leading to challenges for both identification and inference. We motivate the design using a multi sector labor model. Under the model and a potential outcomes framework, we characterize the…