Guardrailed Uplift Targeting: A Causal Optimization Playbook for Marketing Strategy
带业务约束的增量效应定向:营销策略的因果优化框架
This paper introduces a marketing decision framework that optimizes customer targeting by integrating heterogeneous treatment effect estimation with explicit business guardrails. The objective is to maximize revenue and retention while adhering to constraints such as budget, revenue protection, and customer experience. The framework first estimates Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) using uplift learners, then solves a constrained allocation problem to decide whom…