The risks of risk assessment: causal blind spots when using prediction models for treatment decisions
风险评估的风险:用预测模型作治疗决策时的因果盲点
Clinicians increasingly rely on prediction models to guide treatment choices. Most prediction models, however, are developed using observational data that include some patients who have already received the treatment the prediction model is meant to inform. Special attention to the causal role of those earlier treatments is required when interpreting the resulting predictions. We identify 'causal blind spots' in three common approaches to handling treatment when developing a…