A Bayesian Ensemble Projection of Climate Change and Technological Impacts on Future Crop Yields
气候变化与技术影响下未来作物产量的贝叶斯集成预测
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By informing on regional agricultural impacts, this approach addresses broader risks to global food security. Extending an established multivariate econometric crop-yield model to incorporate country-specific error variances, the framework…