A new look at the anthropogenic global warming consensus: an econometric forecast based on the ARIMA model of paleoclimate series
重新审视人为全球变暖共识:基于古气候序列 ARIMA 模型的预测
This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this purpose. The results show that the parameter estimates of the model were below what is established by the anthropogenic current and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN), considering a 100-year scenario, which suggests a period of…