Bridging the Covid-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time-Varying Parameter SIRD Model
用时变参数 SIRD 模型连接新冠疫情数据与流行病模型
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized autoregressive score modeling structure designed for the typical daily count data related to the pandemic. The resulting specification permits a flexible yet parsimonious model with a low computational cost. The…