Diagnosis of model-structural errors with a sliding time-window Bayesian analysis
利用滑动时间窗口贝叶斯分析诊断模型结构误差
Deterministic hydrological models with uncertain, but inferred-to-be-time-invariant parameters typically show time-dependent model structural errors. Such errors can occur if a hydrological process is active in certain time periods in nature, but is not resolved by the model. Such missing processes could become visible during calibration as time-dependent best-fit values of model parameters. We propose a formal time-windowed Bayesian analysis to diagnose this type of model…