Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data
气候政策不确定性的概率预测:宏观金融变量与谷歌搜索数据
Accurately forecasting Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) is essential for designing climate strategies that balance economic growth with environmental objectives. Elevated CPU levels can delay regulatory implementation, hinder investment in green technologies, and amplify public resistance to policy reforms, particularly during periods of economic stress. Despite the growing literature documenting the economic relevance of CPU, forecasting its evolution and understanding the…