Non-linear Phillips Curve for India: Evidence from Explainable Machine Learning
印度的非线性菲利普斯曲线:可解释机器学习证据
The conventional linear Phillips curve model, while widely used in policymaking, often struggles to deliver accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities. This paper addresses these limitations by leveraging machine learning methods within a New Keynesian Phillips Curve framework to forecast and explain headline inflation in India, a major emerging economy. Our analysis demonstrates that machine learning-based approaches significantly…