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自适应实验设计中更强的 Neyman 遗憾保证AI 解读

We study the design of adaptive, sequential experiments for unbiased average treatment effect (ATE) estimation in the design-based potential outcomes setting. Our goal is to develop adaptive designs offering sublinear Neyman regret, meaning their efficiency must approach that of the hindsight-optimal nonadaptive design. Recent work [Dai et al, 2023] introduced ClipOGD, the first method achieving $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ expected Neyman regret under mild conditions. In this…

在线多重有效学习：均值、矩与预测区间AI 解读

We present a general, efficient technique for providing contextual predictions that are "multivalid" in various senses, against an online sequence of adversarially chosen examples $(x,y)$. This means that the resulting estimates correctly predict various statistics of the labels $y$ not just marginally -- as averaged over the sequence of examples -- but also conditionally on $x \in G$ for any $G$ belonging to an arbitrary intersecting collection of groups $\mathcal{G}$. We…