Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Mediation Effects with Bayesian Decision Tree Ensembles
用贝叶斯决策树集成估计异质性因果中介效应AI 解读 ↓
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The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Similarly, studying the causal pathway connecting the treatment to the outcome can be useful. We address these problems in the context of causal mediation analysis . We introduce a varying coefficient model based on Bayesian additive regression trees to estimate and regularize heterogeneous causal mediation effects. Even on large datasets with few covariates, we show LSEMs can produce highly unstable estimates of the conditional average direct and indirect effects, while our Bayesian causal mediation forests model produces stable estimates. We find that our approach is conservative, with effect estimates “shrunk towards homogeneity.” Using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and empirically-grounded simulated data, we examine the salient properties of our method. Finally, we show how our model can be combined with posterior summarization strategies to identify interesting subgroups and interpret the model fit.
利用贝叶斯决策树集成估计异质性因果中介效应
The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that explicitly targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Towards the same ends, studying the causal pathway connecting the treatment to the outcome can be also useful. This paper addresses these problems in the context of \emph{causal mediation analysis}. We introduce a varying coefficient model based on Bayesian additive regression trees to…
纵向中介分析的目标最大似然估计
Causal mediation analysis with random interventions has become an area of significant interest for understanding time-varying effects with longitudinal and survival outcomes. To tackle causal and statistical challenges due to the complex longitudinal data structure with time-varying confounders, competing risks, and informative censoring, there exists a general desire to combine machine learning techniques and semiparametric theory. In this manuscript, we focus on targeted…
处理时变混杂的灵活贝叶斯生存分析 g 公式
In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis. To enhance the traditional parametric g-formula, we developed an alternative g-formula estimator, which incorporates the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the modeling of the time-evolving generative components, aiming to…
纵向中介与事件时间结局的贝叶斯半参数因果中介分析
Causal mediation analysis of observational data is an important tool for investigating the potential causal effects of medications on disease-related risk factors, and on time-to-death (or disease progression) through these risk factors. However, when analyzing data from a cohort study, such analyses are complicated by the longitudinal structure of the risk factors and the presence of time-varying confounders. Leveraging data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities…
基于贝叶斯机器学习的决策论亚组发现
We consider the problem of identifying promising subpopulations in terms of treatment effectiveness or treatment effect heterogeneity, from a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective. We first show that a straight-forward application of Bayesian decision theory to subgroup detection leads to a counter-intuitive risk-seeking (RS) behavior. Motivated by this observation, we introduce the Bayesian Risk-Aware Inference and Detection of Subgroups (BRAIDS) utility and use it to…
处理—混杂反馈下电力需求的边际结构模型与连续处理自适应 LASSO
Temperature is the most important meteorological driver of electricity demand, but its causal effect has not been estimated under the time-varying confounding that characterizes weather processes. Current temperature is associated with weather conditions, including precipitation, snow cover, and cloud cover, that also influence electricity demand, and past temperature shapes future weather, producing treatment-confounder feedback under which standard regression adjustment is…