Weak‐instrument robust inference for two‐sample instrumental variables regression
两样本工具变量回归中的弱工具稳健推断AI 解读 ↓
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两样本工具变量回归中的弱工具稳健推断AI 解读 ↓
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Summary Instrumental variable (IV) methods for regression are well established. More recently, methods have been developed for statistical inference when the instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous regressor, so that estimators are biased and no longer asymptotically normally distributed. This paper extends such inference to the case where two separate samples are used to implement instrumental variables estimation. We also relax the restrictive assumptions of homoskedastic error structure and equal moments of exogenous covariates across two samples commonly employed in the two‐sample IV literature for strong IV inference. Monte Carlo experiments show good size properties of the proposed tests regardless of the strength of the instruments. We apply the proposed methods to two seminal empirical studies that adopt the two‐sample IV framework.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
大面板中的颗粒工具变量:强、近弱与弱工具下的识别和推断
I develop asymptotic theory for Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) in large panels with both $N$ and $T$ growing. The granular instrument is constructed from individual shocks that must be estimated from the panel. I show that this estimation has a first-order effect on the asymptotic variance of the GIV estimator. Existing methods do not account for this effect, leading to incorrect standard errors and invalid inference. I derive corrected standard errors that deliver…
工具变量回归中维度自适应的自助法 Anderson–Rubin 检验
Weak-identification-robust tests for instrumental variable (IV) regressions are typically developed separately depending on whether the number of IVs is treated as fixed or increasing with the sample size, forcing researchers to make a stance on the asymptotic behavior, which is often ambiguous in practice. This paper proposes a bootstrap-based, dimension-agnostic Anderson-Rubin (AR) test that achieves correct asymptotic size regardless of whether the number of IVs is fixed…
样本量依赖核的高维加权与双样本 U 统计量高斯近似
We develop Gaussian approximations for high-dimensional vectors formed by second-order $U$-and $V$-statistics whose kernels depend on sample size. To accommodate weighted and two-sample $U$-and $V$-statistics within a unified framework, we establish our results under independent but not identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) sampling. The resulting theorems apply to a broad range of problems, including estimation in linear regression models with many covariates or many-weak…
机器学习工具变量下的识别与推断
Instrumental-variables estimation increasingly pools many or high-dimensional instruments into a single machine-learned first stage, with rich controls partialled out. The resulting estimand, the partialled-out IV coefficient built from any signal of the instruments, is a signal-weighted average of the heterogeneous effects, which gives an opaque first stage a precise structural meaning. The average is convex whenever a covariance-monotonicity condition holds, and we provide…
存在干扰参数时矩约束的统一推断
This article proposes a simple unified inference approach on moment restrictions in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed test is constructed based on a new characterization that avoids the estimation of nuisance parameters and can be broadly applied across diverse settings. Under suitable conditions, the test is shown to be asymptotically size controlled and consistent for both independent and dependent samples. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test…