Heteroskedastic cointegration
异方差协整AI 解读 ↓
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异方差协整AI 解读 ↓
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This paper develops an asymptotic theory of estimation and inference in ‘cointegrated’ regression models with errors displaying nonstationary variances. Least squares estimates are shown to be consistent at a T12 rate. Hypothesis testing requires the use of a robust covariance matrix estimate, in contrast to earlier work on cointegrated regressions. The inference theory is not nuisance-free, but preliminary investigations indicate that approximation by the normal distribution may be adequate in practice.
预测分位数回归中的统计推断
This paper studies inference in predictive quantile regressions when the predictive regressor has a near-unit root. We derive asymptotic distributions for the quantile regression estimator and its heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) t -statistic in terms of functionals of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We then propose a switching-fully modified (FM) predictive test for quantile predictability. The proposed test employs an FM style correction with a…
预测分位数回归中的统计推断
This paper studies inference in predictive quantile regressions when the predictive regressor has a near-unit root. We derive asymptotic distributions for the quantile regression estimator and its heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) t-statistic in terms of functionals of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We then propose a switching-fully modified (FM) predictive test for quantile predictability. The proposed test employs an FM style correction with a…
未知时点趋势变动检验:OLS 稳健检验的固定 b 分析
This paper analyzes tests for a shift in the trend function of a time series at an unknown date based on ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the trend function. Inference about the trend parameters depends on the serial correlation structure of the data through the long-run variance (zero frequency spectral density) of the errors. Asymptotically pivotal tests can be obtained by the use of serial correlation robust standard errors that require an estimate of the…
病态估计问题的风险下界与置信集合:谱密度、持续性、单位根及长记忆参数的应用
Important estimation problems in econometrics like estimating the value of a spectral density at frequency zero, which appears in the econometrics literature in the guises of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent variance estimation and long run variance estimation, are shown to be “ill-posed” estimation problems. A prototypical result obtained in the paper is that the minimax risk for estimating the value of the spectral density at frequency zero is infinite…
异方差稳健的面板单位根检验
This article proposes new unit root tests for panels where the errors may be not only serial and/or cross-correlated, but also unconditionally heteroscedastic. Despite their generality, the test statistics are shown to be very simple to implement, requiring only minimal corrections and still the limiting distributions under the null hypothesis are completely free from nuisance parameters. Monte Carlo evidence is also provided to suggest that the new tests perform well in…
分数单位根的异方差稳健检验
This paper shows how fractional unit root tests originally derived under stationarity can be made robust to heteroskedasticity. This is done by using existing tests nested in a regression framework and then implementing these tests using White’s heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors (White, 1980). We show this approach is effective both asymptotically and in finite samples. We also provide some evidence on the asymptotic local power of different implementations of…