A Generalized Argmax Theorem with Applications
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The argmax theorem is a useful result for deriving the limiting distribution of estimators in many applications. The conclusion of the argmax theorem states that the argmax of a sequence of stochastic processes converges in distribution to the argmax of a limiting stochastic process. This paper generalizes the argmax theorem to allow the maximization to take place over a sequence of subsets of the domain. If the sequence of subsets converges to a limiting subset, then the conclusion of the argmax theorem continues to hold. We demonstrate the usefulness of this generalization in three applications: estimating a structural break, estimating a parameter on the boundary of the parameter space, and estimating a weakly identified parameter. The generalized argmax theorem simplifies the proofs for existing results and can be used to prove new results in these literatures.
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A common question about networked time series is whether outcomes changed because shocks transmit more strongly or because the pattern of connections changed. Standard practice inserts a recorded network into an outcome regression and reads movements of the fitted coefficient as changes in transmission strength. When the network is latent, time varying, and measured with error, this reading fails: changes in strength and changes in composition can produce the same outcome…
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We show that structural smooth transition vector autoregressive models are statistically identified if the shocks are mutually independent and at most one of them is Gaussian. This extends a known identification result for linear structural vector autoregressions to a time-varying impact matrix. We also propose an estimation method, show how a blended identification strategy can be adopted to address weak identification, and establish a sufficient condition for ergodic…
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We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single-equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e. correlated with the errors. We show that even in the presence of endogenous regressors it is still preferable, in most cases, to simply estimate the break dates and test for structural change using the usual ordinary least squares (OLS) framework. Except for some knife-edge cases, it delivers estimates of the break dates with higher…