Uniform Gaussian Approximation for The Quasi-Likelihood Estimator for a Weakly Dependent Nonlinear Time Series Models
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弱依赖非线性时间序列模型准似然估计量的一致高斯近似AI 解读 ↓
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We study estimation and inference for a semiparametric class of time series models that specify only the conditional expectation, which is a known link function applied to a linear combination of past observations and covariates. The class covers count, binary, bounded and conditionally heteroskedastic responses within a single formulation, and the parameter is estimated by a quasi-likelihood estimating equation based on the first conditional moment. Under stationarity and a weak-dependence condition expressed through the functional dependence measure, we establish two results. First, using a Fuk--Nagaev inequality for weakly dependent sequences, we show that the estimator is localized in a shrinking neighbourhood of the true value with probability $1-o(n^{-1/2})$. Second, combining a Berry--Esseen bound for weakly dependent sequences with a Gaussian anti-concentration argument to control the remainder of the linear expansion, we obtain a Berry--Esseen bound for linear projections of the estimator, uniform over projection directions. From the projected bound we derive studentized confidence intervals with explicit coverage error and a conservative Bonferroni test for linear hypotheses on the parameters. For real data analysis, we extend the Beta autoregression for double-bounded data to an arbitrary link given by the inverse of a distribution function, and apply it to ten pairwise realized correlations of large-cap technology-stock returns, using Nasdaq and Dow~Jones index returns as covariates.
弱、半强与强识别下的估计和推断
This paper analyzes the properties of standard estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS's) for parameters that are unidentified or weakly identified in some parts of the parameter space. The paper also introduces methods to make the tests and CS's robust to such identification problems. The results apply to a class of extremum estimators and corresponding tests and CS's that are based on criterion functions that satisfy certain asymptotic stochastic quadratic expansions…
条件分位数时间序列模型的半参数效率界
We derive the semiparametric efficiency bound in dynamic models of conditional quantiles under a sole strong mixing assumption. We also provide an expression of Stein’s (1956) least favorable parametric submodel. Our approach is as follows: First, we construct a fully parametric submodel of the semiparametric model defined by the conditional quantile restriction that contains the data generating process. We then compare the asymptotic covariance matrix of the MLE obtained in…
基于 Copula 的半参数马尔可夫模型的有效估计
This paper considers the efficient estimation of copula-based semiparametric strictly stationary Markov models. These models are characterized by nonparametric invariant (one-dimensional marginal) distributions and parametric bivariate copula functions where the copulas capture temporal dependence and tail dependence of the processes. The Markov processes generated via tail dependent copulas may look highly persistent and are useful for financial and economic applications.…
用多项式最大化方法估计具有非对称非高斯新息的 ARIMA 模型
Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA$(p,d,q)$ models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional…
用变换与增广最小二乘估计地球温度响应
The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is central to predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and provides the first application of the Transformed and Augmented Ordinary Least Squares (TAOLS) estimator to estimate the multicointegration model. The main objective is to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean surface temperature…
基于广义协方差的综合序列相关检验
We study nonlinear serial dependence tests for non-Gaussian time series and residuals of dynamic models based on portmanteau statistics involving nonlinear autocovariances. A new test with an asymptotic $χ^2$ distribution is introduced for testing nonlinear serial dependence (NLSD) in time series. This test is inspired by the Generalized Covariance (GCov) residual-based specification test, recently proposed as a diagnostic tool for semi-parametric dynamic models with i.i.d.…