SEQUENTIAL TESTING FOR THE STABILITY OF HIGH-FREQUENCY PORTFOLIO BETAS
高频投资组合贝塔稳定性的序贯检验AI 解读 ↓
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高频投资组合贝塔稳定性的序贯检验AI 解读 ↓
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Despite substantial criticism, variants of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) remain to this day the primary statistical tools for portfolio managers to assess the performance of financial assets. In the CAPM, the risk of an asset is expressed through its correlation with the market, widely known as the beta. There is now a general consensus among economists that these portfolio betas are time-varying and that, consequently, any appropriate analysis has to take this variability into account. Recent advances in data acquisition and processing techniques have led to an increased research output concerning high-frequency models. Within this framework, we introduce here a modified functional CAPM and sequential monitoring procedures to test for the constancy of the portfolio betas. As our main results we derive the large-sample properties of these monitoring procedures. In a simulation study and an application to S&P 100 data we show that our method performs well in finite samples.
已实现相关性的稳健估计:市场贝塔日内波动的新见解
Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of economic time series and complicates correlation measurement at high frequencies. While the quadrant correlation estimator is robust to volatility dynamics, it has low efficiency under Gaussian sampling. We introduce a subsampled quadrant correlation estimator that improves efficiency while retaining robustness and computational simplicity. The estimator is based solely on sign information and involves no smoothing parameter…
条件状态价格密度的非参数滤波
This paper studies the use of noisy high-frequency data to estimate the time-varying state-price density implicit in European option prices. A dynamic kernel estimator of the conditional pricing function and its derivatives is proposed that can be used for model-free risk measurement. Infill asymptotic theory is derived that applies when the pricing function is either smoothly varying or driven by diffusive state variables. Trading times and moneyness levels are modeled by…
纯跳跃设定下的期权面板推断
We develop parametric inference procedures for large panels of noisy option data in a setting, where the underlying process is of pure-jump type, i.e., evolves only through a sequence of jumps. The panel consists of options written on the underlying asset with a (different) set of strikes and maturities available across the observation times. We consider an asymptotic setting in which the cross-sectional dimension of the panel increases to infinity, while the time span…
连续时间模型、已实现波动率与日股票收益的可检验分布含义
Abstract We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous‐time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non‐parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high‐frequency intra‐day data. A sequence of simple‐to‐implement moment‐based tests involving various…
To assess the importance of inflation risk for nominal Treasury yields, a novel quadratic term structure model with time-varying inflation risk is estimated using survey-based inflation uncertainty. The resulting yield decomposition captures very diverse macroeconomic dynamics of inflation and real risk premiums (large and positive during the 1980s but small and negative post-2008) and generates sensible high-frequency estimates of expected inflation and real short rates…
This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I…