Statistical Power for Estimating Treatment Effects Using Difference-in-Differences and Comparative Interrupted Time Series Designs with Variation in Treatment Timing
处理时点变化下双重差分与比较中断时间序列设计的统计功效AI 解读 ↓
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处理时点变化下双重差分与比较中断时间序列设计的统计功效AI 解读 ↓
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This article develops new closed-form variance expressions for power analyses for commonly used difference-in-differences (DID) and comparative interrupted time series (CITS) panel data estimators. The main contribution is to incorporate variation in treatment timing into the analysis. The power formulas also account for other key design features that arise in practice: autocorrelated errors, unequal measurement intervals, and clustering due to the unit of treatment assignment. We consider power formulas for both cross-sectional and longitudinal models and allow for covariates. An illustrative power analysis provides guidance on appropriate sample sizes. The key finding is that accounting for treatment timing increases required sample sizes. Further, DID estimators have considerably more power than standard CITS and ITS estimators. An available Shiny R dashboard performs the sample size calculations for the considered estimators.
面板双重差分估计的简单变换方法
In the case of panel data with staggered interventions, we propose a simple time-series transformation that can be combined with various treatment effect estimators. The transformation is at the unit level, and simply requires computing the average outcome prior to an intervention, subtracting it from a post-treatment outcome, and then carefully selecting the control units in each time period. We show that under no anticipation and parallel trends assumptions, the cohort…
面板因果推断中的自回归模型:州级阿片类药物政策应用
Motivated by the study of state opioid policies, we propose a novel approach that uses autoregressive models for causal effect estimation in settings with panel data and staggered treatment adoption. Specifically, we seek to estimate the impact of key opioid-related policies by quantifying the effects of must access prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), naloxone access laws (NALs), and medical marijuana laws on opioid prescribing. Existing methods, such as…
事件研究中的时变异质性处理效应
This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged dependent variables can induce omitted variable bias in the estimated time-varying treatment effects. We develop a novel semiparametric approach based on a short-T dynamic linear panel model with correlated random coefficients, where the…
加权平行趋势下截距平移合成控制估计量的一致性
The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in a staggered-adoption panel is estimated using an intercept-augmented synthetic-control (SCM) estimator. A weighted parallel trends plus an intercept shift, together with mild regularity on the weight vectors (non-degenerate dispersion) and expanding pre-treatment length, are sufficient for consistency allowing for heavy-tailed shocks. These conditions can be more interpretable than the autoregressive or low-rank factor…
基于局部投影的双重差分方法
ABSTRACT We propose a local projections (LPs)‐based difference‐in‐differences (DiD) approach that subsumes many of the recent solutions proposed in the literature to address possible biases arising from negative weighting. We combine LPs with a flexible “clean control” condition to define appropriate sets of treated and control units. Our proposed LP‐DiD estimator can be implemented with various weighting and normalization schemes for different target estimands, can be…
用于面板数据因果推断的预测算法
Conducting causal inference with panel data is a core challenge in social science research. We adapt a deep neural architecture for time series forecasting (the N-BEATS algorithm) to more accurately impute the counterfactual evolution of a treated unit had treatment not occurred. Across a range of settings, the resulting estimator (``SyNBEATS'') significantly outperforms commonly employed methods (synthetic controls, two-way fixed effects), and attains comparable or more…