A Simple Transformation Approach to Difference-in-Differences Estimation for Panel Data
面板双重差分估计的简单变换方法AI 解读 ↓
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面板双重差分估计的简单变换方法AI 解读 ↓
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In the case of panel data with staggered interventions, we propose a simple time-series transformation that can be combined with various treatment effect estimators. The transformation is at the unit level, and simply requires computing the average outcome prior to an intervention, subtracting it from a post-treatment outcome, and then carefully selecting the control units in each time period. We show that under no anticipation and parallel trends assumptions, the cohort treatment indicators satisfy the key unconfoundedness assumption with respect to the transformed potential outcome. Given identification, any number of treatment effect estimators, including matching estimators, can be applied for each treated cohort and calendar time pair where the average treatment effects on the treated are identified. The doubly robust method of combining inverse probability weighting with linear regression adjustment works particularly well in terms of bias and efficiency. Importantly, our transformation is easily modified to account for unit-specific trends, allowing relaxation of the parallel trends assumption even after conditioning on covariates.
面板因果推断中的自回归模型:州级阿片类药物政策应用
Motivated by the study of state opioid policies, we propose a novel approach that uses autoregressive models for causal effect estimation in settings with panel data and staggered treatment adoption. Specifically, we seek to estimate the impact of key opioid-related policies by quantifying the effects of must access prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), naloxone access laws (NALs), and medical marijuana laws on opioid prescribing. Existing methods, such as…
事件研究中的时变异质性处理效应
This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged dependent variables can induce omitted variable bias in the estimated time-varying treatment effects. We develop a novel semiparametric approach based on a short-T dynamic linear panel model with correlated random coefficients, where the…
用于面板数据因果推断的预测算法
Conducting causal inference with panel data is a core challenge in social science research. We adapt a deep neural architecture for time series forecasting (the N-BEATS algorithm) to more accurately impute the counterfactual evolution of a treated unit had treatment not occurred. Across a range of settings, the resulting estimator (``SyNBEATS'') significantly outperforms commonly employed methods (synthetic controls, two-way fixed effects), and attains comparable or more…
反事实与合成控制的精确稳健共形推断方法
We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to exploit insights from conformal prediction and structural breaks testing to develop permutation inference procedures that accommodate modern high-dimensional estimators, are valid under weak and easy-to-verify conditions, and are provably…
反事实与合成控制的精确稳健共形推断
We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to exploit insights from conformal prediction and structural breaks testing to develop permutation inference procedures that accommodate modern high-dimensional estimators, are valid under weak and easy-to-verify conditions, and are provably…
加权平行趋势下截距平移合成控制估计量的一致性
The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in a staggered-adoption panel is estimated using an intercept-augmented synthetic-control (SCM) estimator. A weighted parallel trends plus an intercept shift, together with mild regularity on the weight vectors (non-degenerate dispersion) and expanding pre-treatment length, are sufficient for consistency allowing for heavy-tailed shocks. These conditions can be more interpretable than the autoregressive or low-rank factor…